Administrative Division Adjustments and Agricultural Economic Growth: Evidence from City–County Mergers in China

Against the backdrop of rapid urbanization, administrative division adjustments not only alter urban administrative boundaries but may also reshape land allocation patterns and affect agricultural production. Using China’s city–county merger reforms as a quasi-natural experiment, this study employs a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) approach and panel data from 266 Chinese prefecture-level cities over the period 2013–2022 to examine the effects of administrative division adjustments on primary-sector value added. The results show that city–county mergers increase primary-sector value added by approximately 6.4% on average. Mechanism analysis suggests that these reforms strengthen prefecture-level governments’ capacity to coordinate resource allocation across counties and districts within their jurisdictions, thereby promoting agricultural economic growth through improved allocation of agricultural and non-agricultural production resources. Specifically, city–county mergers increase cultivated land area by approximately 4.3% on average and significantly raise local government expenditure on agriculture, forestry, and water conservancy. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the positive effects are more pronounced in cities with stronger intergovernmental competition within their jurisdictions and in central and western China. These findings suggest that city–county mergers not only reshape urban administrative boundaries but may also promote growth in primary-sector value added by strengthening prefecture-level governments’ capacity to coordinate resource allocation within their jurisdictions. This study provides new empirical evidence on the economic effects of administrative division adjustments on the agricultural sector and contributes to a better understanding of how urban expansion can be reconciled with agricultural development.