Universality under pressure: Why are Europeans increasingly selective in their solidarity with at‐risk social groups?

This paper develops the concept of selective solidarity, that is, differences in concern for the unemployed, the elderly, and the sick or disabled, by tracing its development over time and studying potential drivers. Using multilevel regression analysis on repeated cross‐sections from the European Values Study (1999/2001, 2008/2010, and 2017/2021) in 21 European countries, we test competing hypotheses on the erosive and restorative effects of conditional welfare policies and economic conditions. Findings show that solidarity has become increasingly selective: concern for the unemployed has declined while concern for the elderly and sick or disabled has grown. Conditional and selective policies appear to restore rather than erode solidarity, at least partially, by tempering the rise in selectivity. Moreover, higher unemployment rates are similarly associated with less selective solidarity. Ultimately, the very pressures that threaten solidarity may also contribute to its renewal, yet what places universalism under pressure remains an open question.