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Data, code and full results for a country-level assessment of COVID-19 in India in calendar 2020. Monthly Index of Industrial Production (IIP) series for 24 industries were projected to a no-disruption counterfactual with models chosen by rolling-origin validation on data up to December 2019 (seasonal naive, ETS, SARIMA and an equal-weight ensemble, compared by MASE). The output gap was converted into gross output, value added and employee compensation through a calibrated mapping to the WIOD Socio-Economic Accounts. DALYs, years of potentially productive life lost and productivity costs were estimated by state and age from recorded cases and deaths. Across 20 manufacturing industries the value-added shortfall was about INR 2.38 trillion at constant 2011-12 prices (95% interval 2.09-2.70); recorded cases and deaths produced 2.29 million DALYs and a productivity cost of INR 116.8 billion.
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A 2026 study studied this question.
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