Impacts of forest protection in the Czech Republic on the Central European wood market: A scenario analysis

Expanding forest protection may create a conflict between biodiversity conservation objectives and the availability of wood raw material for downstream industries. This study aimed to assess the potential impacts of this conflict on the Czech wood-processing sector and to identify mechanisms that could mitigate emerging raw-material shortages. A systematic synthesis of 311 unique studies was combined with an evidence-constrained scenario model incorporating supply restrictions, trade adjustment, production leakage, domestic adaptation, and sector-specific exposure. For the Czech reference industrial wood supply of 14.558 million m3, three scenarios were assessed: LOW (5%), CENTRAL (12.5%), and HIGH (37%). Under the CENTRAL scenario, reference trade adjustment reduced the deficit to 559.9 thousand m3, corresponding to 3.85% of baseline supply; with full implementation of the identified technical adaptation potential, the deficit could decline to 1.28%. Under the HIGH scenario, however, a deficit of 13.53% remained even after trade adjustment and maximum identified adaptation. The results show that the compatibility of stronger forest protection with the functioning of the wood-processing industry depends on the magnitude of the initial supply shock, trade response, implementation of adaptation measures, and maintenance of critical raw-material flows.