Water scarcity and economic development: Assessing risks to growth, agriculture, and regional stability

Water scarcity represents an escalating global challenge, profoundly exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change, population growth, and unsustainable water management practices, with approximately 2 billion people currently living in water-stressed regions. This pervasive and intensifying scarcity of freshwater resources poses substantial and interconnected risks to global economic development, agricultural productivity, and regional stability. The aim of this study is to synthesize current understanding of these water scarcity risks across economic, agricultural, and stability dimensions. Employing a systematic literature review, the study conducted a comprehensive search across major academic databases including Scopus, Web of Science, PubMed, and Google Scholar, supplemented by reports from international organizations like the World Bank, focusing on peer-reviewed articles and authoritative reports published in English from 2020 onwards. The review confirms that water scarcity imposes significant and multifaceted constraints on macroeconomic growth, with global analyses consistently linking diminishing freshwater availability to reduced economic growth and quantitative projections forecasting substantial global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) losses. Water-intensive industrial sectors face escalating operational costs and impeded output, while agricultural systems exhibit profound vulnerabilities, leading to substantial decreases in crop yields and threatening food security. These findings underscore water as a fundamental and increasingly vulnerable input for sustained economic prosperity, demanding urgent and integrated attention to mitigate widespread risks.