Economic Growth, Small-Business Employment and Poverty Reduction in Uzbekistan: An ARDL Bounds-Testing Analysis of Real Household Income, 2010–2025

Poverty in Uzbekistan fell from 17.0% in 2021 to 5.8% in 2025, while real income per capita rose 3.5-fold since 2010. This thesis asks whether the expansion of small business, a central instrument of the national poverty agenda, explains this income growth once aggregate growth is controlled for. Using official 2010–2025 data, an ARDL bounds test confirms a long-run relationship (F = 6.98). The long-run elasticity of real income with respect to real GDP per capita is 1.58, whereas the small-business share of employment has no significant long-run effect (+0.17% per percentage point, 95% CI ±1.90%). Deviations from equilibrium close within about one year. Poverty responds strongly to income growth (elasticity −4.0), and conditional projections indicate a poverty rate of about 3% in 2027 under baseline growth. Policy should therefore target productivity and job quality in small firms rather than their share of employment.