Quantitative Analysis of Spatiotemporal Asymmetric Dynamic Changes and Driving Mechanisms of Carbon Storage in the Huaihe River Basin

Exploring the dynamic evolution of carbon storage plays a crucial role in maintaining ecological stability in river basins. This paper takes the Huai River Basin as the research object and uses the PLUS model to predict land use changes under different development scenarios in the future. Based on the predicted results and meteorological, ecological and other data, the InVEST model was coupled to analyze the spatiotemporal changes of carbon storage under different scenarios in the future. The driving mechanism of carbon stock evolution within the watershed was ultimately analyzed using the GeoDetector model. The results show that (1) the land use pattern of the basin remained generally stable from 2000 to 2023, with cropland as the dominant land use type, impervious surfaces continuously expanding, and the areas of cropland, forestland, and grassland generally decreasing; (2) carbon storage in the basin generally showed a slowly declining trend, exhibiting a spatial pattern of high in the south and low in the north and high in the west and low in the east; (3) natural factors such as the DEM and slope have the greatest impact on the spatial distribution of carbon storage, the interactions among multiple factors are significantly enhanced, and the influence of socio-economic factors has gradually strengthened; and (4) by 2030, carbon storage increases under all scenarios, with the largest increase under the ecological protection scenario and the smallest under the economic development scenario. The results can provide a scientific basis for land use optimization, carbon sink enhancement, and ecological protection under the dual-carbon goals.