When Government Cannot Measure Itself: Statistical Exclusion and Unequal Public-Service Allocation in Conflict-Affected Counties

Background: It applies descriptive analysis to official South Sudan census shares, World Bank population estimates, and IOM humanitarian programme aggregates while distinguishing observed statistics from hypotheses about inequitable county allocation. Objective: This article investigates how weak population registration, displacement-sensitive denominators and incomplete administrative reporting can lead public-service systems to overlook conflict-affected counties. Methods: It argues that statistical visibility is a politically mediated precondition for equitable public administration, but published national aggregates do not demonstrate county-level misallocation or causal effects. Results: The 2008 National Bureau of Statistics census reported about 8.26 million residents, whereas the World Bank estimated 12,188,788 persons in 2025; these statistics differ by instrument and reference year and must not be interpreted as a directly observed census increase. Conclusion: IOM reported 9.3 million people in need, 2,096,215 targeted and 1,238,478 reached in its 2023–2025 response-plan dashboard.