Mathematical Model for Dengue Transmission: A Comparative Study from the Perspective of Urban and Rural Areas in Bangladesh

Dengue, spread by Aedes mosquitoes (vector) is one of the major public health concerns in Bangladesh, with transmission patterns differing notably between urban and rural areas. This study develops a SEIR-SEI compartmental model to capture dengue dynamics, integrating human (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) and mosquito (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious) populations. Using daily case of infected and death data from Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) within the time interval from January 2024 to March 2025, we estimate key parameters, including transmission (β₁,β₂) and recovery (r) rates, via least squares optimization to fit observed trends in urban (city-corporation) and rural (outside-city-corporation) regions. A novel contribution is the comparative analysis of urban-rural transmission dynamics, revealing disparities that guide region specific interventions. Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number (R₀) identifies critical drivers of outbreaks, while stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium informs control efficacy. Our findings advocate for targeted strategies, such as intensified urban vector control and rural awareness campaigns, to mitigate dengue’s spread. This model enhances data-driven public health planning, supporting effective outbreak mitigation in Bangladesh.