A Latent Class Analysis of Aggravating Factors Submitted by the Prosecution in Capital Murder Cases

Departing from the predominant body of capital punishment research that largely focuses on predictors of death sentencing for the crime of murder, we utilize a Latent Class Analysis (LCA) approach to develop a typology of cases submitted by the state for a capital trial. The analyses are conducted with a near population of capital murder trials in North Carolina spanning the years 1977 to 2024. These analyses examine the degree, if any, to which aggravating sentencing factors (i.e., legal elements in the capital sentencing process) coalesce to form common types of cases that advance to the penalty phase of a capital trial. The study addresses the following research questions: Are there combinations of aggravating sentencing factors submitted by the state to the capital jury that characterize different latent classes of capital cases that advance to the penalty phase of a capital trial? If so, how many common latent classes are there, what percentage of each class get sentenced to death, what are the offense, offender, and victim characteristics that distinguish the profiles of each latent class, and, finally, how well do the resultant latent classes add to our ability to predict capital sentencing outcomes.