Speed versus resilience in Poland’s energy transition

The Polish energy transition represents one of the most complex cases of power sector decarbonisation in Central and Eastern Europe. Moving away from a socio-technical regime historically entrenched in hard coal and lignite towards a diversified low-carbon energy mix raises fundamental questions regarding temporal dynamics and socio-technical resilience. This article critically evaluates the projected trajectories of electricity generation in Poland up to 2040, drawing on empirical forecasts of gross power production in terawatt-hours, alongside the corresponding shares in the generation mix. The analysis demonstrates that whilst the projected decline in coal’s share from 87% in 2015 to 9% in 2040, combined with the expansion of renewable energy sources to 53%, indicates a profound structural transformation, the pace of decarbonisation remains constrained by regulatory inertia and legacy infrastructure. Simultaneously, the emerging configuration introduces novel vulnerabilities, notably a tripling of gas-fired power generation that risks establishing a new form of carbon lock-in, and an ambitious reliance on nuclear power after 2030 that carries significant risks of megaproject execution. The article outlines key implications for transition governance, emphasising that accelerating decarbonisation must be coupled with grid resilience, energy storage expansion, and spatial justice to achieve a stable and equitable energy transition.