Behavioral Economics of Educational Choice: Cognitive Biases, Social Influence and Human Capital Investment in Uzbekistan

Investment in higher education is a central mechanism of human capital formation and long-term economic development. Traditional human capital theory explains educational decisions through expected earnings, tuition costs, employment prospects, and the anticipated returns to education. However, behavioral economics highlights the additional influence of present bias, social norms, overconfidence, information limitations, and reference-dependent preferences. This article examines these behavioral mechanisms in the context of higher education expansion in Uzbekistan. The study applies descriptive statistical analysis, growth-rate calculations, structural analysis, and scenario modeling using official data published by the National Statistics Committee. The number of higher education students increased from 571.5 thousand in the 2020/2021 academic year to 1,535.0 thousand in 2025/2026, representing cumulative growth of approximately 168.6%. The number of higher education graduates increased from 83,905 in 2020 to 225,940 in 2025, while the higher education coverage rate for the population aged 18–23 increased from 6.8% in 2014 to 47.7% in 2024. These developments indicate substantial expansion in education participation and the scale of human capital formation. Nevertheless, aggregate enrollment trends cannot establish the direct influence of psychological factors on individual decisions. The study proposes a conceptual framework incorporating behavioral diagnostics, transparent information, career counseling, and educational choice architecture. The findings emphasize the importance of integrating behavioral insights into higher education policy while maintaining access, autonomy, and evidence-based institutional evaluation.