Optimizing the spatial layout of china’s industrial transfer to the five Lancang–mekong countries under resource and environmental constraints

China’s expanding industrial transfer to the five Lancang–Mekong countries has intensified the tension between development demand and the region’s limited resource–environmental carrying capacity. Achieving a sustainable and spatially rational industrial layout requires a land-use oriented approach that explicitly integrates suitability conditions, ecological constraints, and alternative development pathways. This study constructs a spatial decision-support framework by coupling an ANN with a Partitioned Asynchronous CA, using multi-source geospatial data for 2019 and 2024 to derive industrial transition probabilities and simulate cross-border industrial land allocation. Five policy-oriented scenarios—infrastructure-led, economic-led, ecological conservation, coordinated development, and business-as-usual pathways—were developed to evaluate trade-offs between development intensity and environmental constraints. Results indicate that the model achieves moderate agreement performance (overall accuracy= 0.81; Kappa = 0.62), effectively capturing industrial clustering and diffusion processes. High-suitability industrial zones concentrate in Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi (Vietnam), Phnom Penh (Cambodia), Vientiane (Laos), the Bangkok–Chonburi corridor (Thailand), and Naypyidaw (Myanmar). Scenario-based optimization reveals a three-tier spatial hierarchy: Vietnam and Thailand as multi-factor advantageous areas, Cambodia and Myanmar as cost-dependent expansion zones, and Laos as a policy-driven development region constrained by topography and ecological sensitivity. The differentiated planning recommendations suggest: technological upgrading in Thailand, transition beyond low-end manufacturing in Vietnam, special economic zone–guided development in Myanmar, green industry upgrading in Cambodia, and light-capital, corridor-oriented development along the China–Laos Railway. The proposed framework demonstrates a replicable land-use optimization tool for cross-border industrial planning, offering evidence to support sustainable spatial governance in the Lancang–Mekong region and the broader Green Belt and Road Initiative.