A just energy transition approach for the Global South: insights from Brazil for South Africa and beyond

This article examines the institutional conditions shaping energy transitions in resource-dependent economies, drawing on Brazil’s experience to derive policy insights for South Africa and comparable African contexts. Transitions are often framed as processes of technological substitution. This article argues instead that outcomes are determined primarily by institutional configurations that structure incentives, allocate risk and manage distributional conflict. Grounded in institutional political economy and the literature on directed technical change, the analysis focuses on four dimensions: fossil fuel rent structures; industrial policy sequencing; electricity market design; and development finance architecture. Brazil’s trajectory reflects institutional layering, with renewable electricity expansion occurring alongside hydrocarbon production. Comparison with South Africa highlights the limits of policy transfer in a more carbon-intensive and regionally concentrated political economy. Programmes such as the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme and the Just Energy Transition Partnership illustrate both the potential and constraints of procurement design and concessional finance.