Global Uncertainty and Digital Export Resilience: Evidence From Innovation-Leading Economies

This study examines whether global uncertainty affects the international performance of digital exports in leading innovative economies. The analysis covers ten technology-intensive economies over the period 1996–2022. To provide a clearer understanding of digital trade, the study separates digital service export share (DSE) from digital goods export share (DGE). This distinction is important because digital services and digital goods may respond differently to changes in demand, investment decisions, institutional conditions, and supply-chain disruptions. The study examines the effect of global uncertainty exposure (GUX) while also considering foreign capital inflows (FCIs), governance quality, trade openness, real borrowing costs, carbon-emission intensity, and economic growth. The results of the cross-sectional dependence tests show strong interdependence among the selected economies. Therefore, the study applies econometric methods that account for common global shocks. The CS-ARDL results indicate that persistent global uncertainty has a significant negative effect on both DSE and DGE in the long run. In contrast, FCIs, better control of corruption, and economic growth generally support digital export performance. The dynamic results further show that global uncertainty negatively affects both digital service and digital goods exports, although the size of the effect and the short-run adjustment process differ between the two measures. Overall, the findings show that global uncertainty is an important barrier to digital trade because it can delay investment, disrupt technology-related supply chains, and reduce confidence in cross-border transactions. From an innovation management perspective, the results indicate that firms in innovation-intensive economies need to develop resilient innovation and internationalisation strategies that incorporate uncertainty into technology investment, digital-market expansion, supply-chain management, and resource allocation decisions.