Factores que inciden en la probabilidad de empleo informal en la población juvenil de Machala.

Informal employment remains a structural and persistent phenomenon across Latin America, with a particularly strong effect on young people. In Ecuador, socioeconomic inequality, limited social security coverage, and insufficient formal job creation have left youth employment especially precarious. This is evident in cities such as Machala, where many young people struggle to find stable jobs with labor benefits. The general objective of this research was to analyze the factors influencing the likelihood of young people in Machala entering informal employment during 2025. The study followed a quantitative approach with an explanatory scope and a non-experimental, cross-sectional design. Data were collected through 387 surveys applied to young people between 15 and 29 years old, which made it possible to estimate a logistic regression (logit) model, combining survey data from young people in the Machala canton with statistical data from Ecuador's National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INEC), drawn from the national employment, unemployment, and underemployment surveys. The results show that educational attainment and work experience significantly reduce the probability of a young person being in informal employment; the model also showed adequate performance, reaching an area under the ROC curve of 0.8182 and an overall classification accuracy of 79.33%. It is concluded that access to education should be strengthened, programs that facilitate the acquisition of work experience should be promoted, and policies aimed at formalizing youth employment should be implemented.