Application of ARIMA Method in Predicting Volume of Clean Water Usage in Manado City

This study aims to determine an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model and forecast the volume of clean water consumption in Manado City for the subsequent six months. The data used in this study were obtained from monthly clean water consumption statistics in Manado City, spanning from January 2016 to October 2023. A total of 94 data points were utilized: 86 were used for model development, while the final 8 were reserved for model testing and validation. The results indicate that ARIMA(2,2,1) is the optimal model for forecasting clean water consumption volume in Manado City. The ARIMA(2,2,1) model is expressed as: . The six-month forecast-covering November 2023 to April 2024 projects water consumption volumes ranging from 365,840 to 377,962 m³, with the peak occurring in December 2023. The predictions suggest a downward trend in water consumption volume of 2.65% between November 2023 and April 2024. These findings demonstrate that the ARIMA(2,2,1) model has the potential to serve as a tool for estimating clean water demand, thereby supporting the planning of water supply and distribution by water utility providers in Manado City.