Contested Connectivity: Afghanistan in Eurasian Geoeconomic Networks and Development Scenarios

This article examines Afghanistan’s geoeconomic position within contested Eurasian connectivity networks and explores its potential development trajectories under changing regional and domestic conditions. Situated at the intersection of major regional economic spaces, Afghanistan occupies a potentially significant position in emerging patterns of Eurasian connectivity; however, multiple, often competing political, strategic, infrastructural, and institutional factors shape the realization of this potential. Using a qualitative research design, the study applies thematic analysis to 35 purposively selected academic sources identified through Google Scholar, based on publication period, relevance to the research topic, and alignment with the study’s key concepts and keywords. The analysis identifies five interrelated dynamics shaping Afghanistan’s geoeconomic role: Eurasian network reconfiguration, interregional connectivity, infrastructure corridors, strategic competition, and internal barriers. These dynamics do not operate independently; they interact in ways that shape both the opportunities and constraints of Afghanistan’s integration into broader regional economic processes. The study conceptualizes their convergence through the central theme of contested connectivity, highlighting the uncertain, uneven, and conditional nature of Afghanistan’s position within Eurasian networks. Based on this analysis, the study further develops four possible development scenarios: marginalization, strategic insulation, asymmetric dependent connectivity, and integration hub development. The findings suggest that Afghanistan’s future position will depend on the interaction of regional competition, infrastructure development, institutional capacity, and domestic stability, which together will influence the direction and extent of its integration into Eurasian connectivity networks.