Climate conditions and international migration: Evidence from Türkiye

This study examines the effects of climate variability on international net migration to Türkiye over the period 1970–2024, incorporating temperature anomalies (1991–2020 baseline) and drought–wetness conditions derived from the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Using annual data, we employ an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework alongside kernel-based regularized least squares (KRLS) to capture both the dynamic and nonlinear relationships. The results indicate a statistically significant negative association between temperature anomalies and net migration in both the short and long runs. SPEI-based wet conditions showed no systematic relationship with net migration, whereas the association between drought conditions and net migration emerged with a lag. Urban population growth and life expectancy consistently promote net migration, whereas inflation exerts a negative long-run effect. The trade ratio displays lag-dependent short-run effects and interacts positively with drought conditions over time. The Syrian conflict dummy variable is positively and significantly associated with net migration. The results indicate that the relationship between climate pressures and net migration is nonlinear and varies across different economic and absorptive capacity conditions, highlighting the importance of adaptable modelling techniques for analyzing climate–migration linkages.