How climate-related events become climate governance problems: climate change attribution divergence as an interpretive mechanism

Climate-related events are often viewed as potential catalysts for policy learning and changes in climate governance. Floods, droughts, heatwaves, wildfires, and other environmental changes can expose vulnerabilities in infrastructure, land-use planning, and emergency preparedness, drawing attention to the need to reassess existing practices. However, events can be associated with different responses, proving that exposure and scientific information alone do not determine collective action. Governance responses depend not only on institutional, political, and socioeconomic conditions, but also on how actors interpret experienced environmental changes in relation to anthropogenic climate change. These subjective interpretations are distinct from scientific event attribution and vary in strength across actors. Differences in attribution may contribute to divergent problem definitions, shaping which issues are prioritised and the type, scale, and temporal orientation of adaptation, mitigation, and other governance responses. Building on empirical research documenting variation in climate change attribution strength across actors and contexts, this paper introduces climate change attribution divergence, defined as differences among actors in the strength with which experienced environmental events and impacts are attributed to anthropogenic climate change. While existing research has examined attribution primarily at the individual level, less attention has been given to how differences in attribution may matter within shared governance contexts. The paper develops a conceptual framework specifying how subjective attribution, variation in attribution strength, and problem definition are linked, and how attribution divergence may contribute to divergent governance responses. The framework offers an interpretive mechanism for understanding why environmental events may give rise to different governance pathways.