The Defect Is Not in the Shape: A Derived Curve for the Closure Defect, Tested on SPARC

Cycle 2 left a slope that refuses 4 by regime, for all nine forms at once. This paper asks whether the forms themselves wrote that refusal: the exact defect split Δ = −ε −4κ −2ρ is derived and verified for all nine forms (max deviation 9.75×10⁻⁵), and the shape-derived curve is spent against the sealed regime slopes. It misses for all nine — 0 of 9 agree inside the registered ±0.20 band in both regimes (high-regime misses +0.422…+0.505). The defect is not in the shape: it localizes to the outer-point residual term (−0.50…−0.60 low / −0.75…−0.84 high), trending with V_f, not with y_f. Measured, located, unexplained.