Childhood educational, social and health factors associated with the timing and recurrence of NEET status into adulthood: a prospective birth cohort study

Background: Being not in education, employment or training (NEET) has far-reaching consequences for both health and economic outcomes. Identifying what contributes to, and can predict, becoming NEET is therefore necessary to mitigate negative downstream outcomes. A single measure of whether a young person is NEET can conceal differences in when disengagement occurs, whether it recurs, and what the antecedents are. Methods: We examined childhood educational, social and health characteristics in relation to three dimensions of later NEET: 1) number of occasions of NEET, 2) age at first observed NEET, and 3) single, sustained or recurrent (repeated with interruptions) patterns, using up to 11 repeated assessments between ages 16 and 33 in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; imputed analyses, N=8,130). Negative binomial and multinomial models compared minimally, sociodemographically and mutually adjusted associations. Results: After mutual adjustment, higher attainment at age 10-11 (Key Stage 2), number of childhood traumas up to age 17, persistent patterns of childhood conduct problems and adolescent depression remained associated with accumulated, sustained and recurrent NEET (e.g. attainment incidence rate ratio: 0.80, 95% CI: 0.75-0.85). NEET antecedents differed by age at first NEET: the widest range of factors predicted onset before 21, only depression predicted onset at 21-24, and onset at 25-33 was dominated by sex, with women twice as likely to experience being NEET. Family-disadvantage associations attenuated after mutual adjustment; complete-case results were consistent. Conclusion: Conditional associations do not establish causal effects, mediation or individual predictive accuracy. However, educational, social and health needs overlap across different patterns of NEET participation, and these findings highlight the need for early educational and family support, integrated mental-health and employment services, and continuing support after re-entry.