Uncertain panel threshold regression model and its application

This study first constructs an uncertain panel threshold regression model (UPTR) and empirically examines the impact of energy structure changes on carbon emissions based on panel data from 29 Chinese provinces spanning 2012 to 2020. The results show that there is a significant threshold effect of energy structure changes on carbon emissions, and that the level of industrial development and the intensity of renewable energy utilization are important factors affecting carbon emissions. When the energy structure crosses a specific threshold, the intensity of its impact on carbon emissions undergoes a clear shift. Specifically, before crossing the threshold, the energy structure significantly increases carbon emissions, whereas after crossing the threshold, its marginal emission-increasing effect weakens. This indicates that only when renewable energy utilization reaches a certain level can the optimization of the energy structure truly play a role in curbing carbon emissions.