Farmers’ career trajectories and retirement decisions over the life course

This study examines generational renewal in Swedish agriculture by analysing farmers’ career trajectories over the life course. Using longitudinal register data covering the entire Swedish population of farmers during 1991–2022, we study three key transitions: whether individuals who work in agriculture remain in the sector over time, whether they transition into farm ownership, and when older farmers exit through retirement. The results show that around 60–65 percent of individuals who work in agriculture in their late teens leave the sector by age 25, but that younger cohorts are more likely than older cohorts to remain in agriculture, while differences in farm ownership are substantially smaller once the analysis is conditioned on continued participation in the sector. However, the youngest cohort shows signs of an earlier transition into farm ownership. This pattern coincides with greater exposure to the Support for young farmers and is consistent with, but does not establish, the hypothesis that the support brought forward entry into farm ownership. The study also shows that farmers retire substantially later than the general population and that younger cohorts postpone full retirement longer than older cohorts. Observable characteristics explain only a limited share of these cohort differences.