Towards a Fragility-Based Understanding of Military Coups in West Africa: Implications for Democratic Governance, Peace and Regional Security

The resurgence of military coups in West Africa since 2020 has exposed a persistent tension between formal democratic institutions and the capacity of states to provide security, accountable governance and socioeconomic opportunities. Although existing scholarship identifies weak institutions, insecurity, corruption, electoral controversies and declining public confidence as important conditions surrounding recent military interventions, the interaction among these conditions and their implications for peace and regional security remains insufficiently integrated. This study examines how multidimensional state fragility has created conditions associated with the resurgence of military coups in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Niger and analyses the consequences for democratic governance, peace and regional security. The study adopts an interpretivist paradigm and a qualitative comparative documentary research design. It purposively analyses peer-reviewed studies, books, policy reports, regional instruments, official documents and institutional evidence published principally between 2011 and 2025, with selected earlier foundational works. Data were subjected to thematic content analysis through iterative coding, categorisation and synthesis. The findings indicate that recent coups emerged within interacting conditions of weakened institutional capacity, deteriorating security, legitimacy deficits, socioeconomic exclusion, politicised civil–military relations and declining confidence in civilian governments. The evidence also indicates that dissatisfaction with democratic performance should not be equated with rejection of democracy. Military intervention subsequently disrupted constitutional governance, complicated humanitarian and security responses, and weakened regional institutional cohesion. The study concludes that state fragility creates an enabling environment rather than an automatic causal pathway to military rule. It recommends strengthening institutional resilience, accountable governance, civilian control of security institutions, inclusive development, constitutional safeguards and preventive regional diplomacy.