Climate variability and agricultural production in an arid basin: A hierarchical panel data analysis in the Conchos River Basin, Mexico

Agricultural production in irrigated semi-arid regions is increasingly influenced by climatic variability, atmospheric aridity, and territorial inequalities in water access and infrastructure. The present study aimed to evaluate the influence of climatic variables on agricultural production within the Conchos River Basin, northern Mexico, through hierarchical panel-data models, identifying spatiotemporal patterns, crop-cycle responses, and the contribution of climatic and territorial factors to agricultural vulnerability. Agricultural and climatic data from 32 municipalities during 2003–2024 were analyzed using principal component analysis and hierarchical mixed-effects panel models with annual and seasonal structures. Principal component analysis identified thermo-hygrometric and precipitation–thermal stress gradients as the dominant sources of climatic variability. Hierarchical models provided stronger statistical evidence for thermal effects than precipitation among the predictors considered, with maximum temperature during the fall-winter cycle identified as the only climatic variable with a significant positive effect in the seasonal model. Significant random effects indicated substantial territorial and municipality–cropping-cycle heterogeneity in agricultural production, with municipalities such as Delicias, Meoqui, Saucillo, Jiménez, and Ojinaga showing higher production levels and greater hydro-agricultural vulnerability. Agricultural production also differed among cropping cycles, with perennial systems showing the highest output levels, spring-summer crops exhibiting lower relative vulnerability, and fall-winter systems presenting greater relative vulnerability and differentiated responses to thermal variability. The expansion of perennial crops under warm conditions may increase pressure on surface and groundwater resources through intensified irrigation demand. These findings highlight the need for integrated water-management strategies, groundwater conservation, promotion of lower water-demand crops, and public policies limiting agricultural expansion under water-scarcity conditions.