Decoupling exposure, risk perception, and preparedness in smallholder systems: evidence from rural Madagascar

Household climate risk in Madagascar reflects the interaction of hazard exposure, perceived risk, and structural capacity to prepare for shocks. As climate variability and extremes intensify across tropical smallholder regions, understanding how these dimensions align at the household level becomes increasingly important. This study examines these dynamics in two contrasting regions, cyclone-exposed Sava and drought-prone Atsimo Andrefana. Using data from 245 stratified households, we integrate a composite Exposure Index, perceived likelihood and severity measures, and a multidimensional Shock Readiness Index capturing assets, credit access, and financial buffers. Results show a decoupling between exposure, perceived risk, and readiness. In Sava, households report higher exposure and perceived risk but lower readiness, associated with limited credit access, liquidity constraints, and specialized crop-based livelihoods. In contrast, households in Atsimo Andrefana perceive lower risk yet demonstrate comparatively higher readiness, supported by diversified livelihoods and convertible livestock assets. These patterns indicate a perception–readiness gap in which heightened awareness does not translate into preparedness under binding structural constraints. Early warning access shows limited association with readiness, suggesting that information alone has limited influence where response options are constrained. By integrating perceived risk with structural preparedness, the study clarifies why preparedness does not systematically track exposure in climate-exposed rural systems. In the context of ongoing global climate change, the findings suggest that strengthening structural capacity through improved financial access, livelihood diversification, and institutional support will be critical to narrowing preparedness gaps in smallholder regions beyond Madagascar.