Renewable energy exports logistics: Evaluating green hydrogen delivery and HVDC power transmission

Australia’s abundant renewable resources create major opportunities for exporting low-carbon energy, yet the relative advantages of hydrogen shipping and direct electricity transmission remain highly distance-dependent. This study presents a unified techno-economic and environmental comparison of two export pathways: liquefied green hydrogen and high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission. Both options are evaluated over a 25-year project life on a common delivered-energy basis for two representative Australian corridors: Northern Territory–Singapore (3800 km) and Victoria–Tasmania (450 km), assuming firmed renewable electricity at AUD 0.04/kWh. The hydrogen pathway yields delivered costs of AUD 5.89/kg and AUD 5.40/kg, equivalent to AUD 0.177/kWh and AUD 0.162/kWh on a lower-heating-value basis. The bottom-up HVDC model produces delivered electricity costs of AUD 0.130/kWh and AUD 0.061/kWh, respectively. HVDC is more economical in both cases, although its advantage decreases with distance, with the hydrogen cost premium falling from AUD 0.101/kWh over 450 km to AUD 0.047/kWh over 3800 km. A fixed-throughput distance sweep indicates that the two pathways’ delivered-energy costs would converge only well beyond the studied corridors — at roughly 6500 km under the base delivery-fee schedule, and between approximately 5700 and 8500 km across plausible fee schedules. Sensitivity analysis identifies electricity price and chain energy intensity as the dominant drivers of hydrogen cost, while HVDC performance is governed mainly by capital expenditure, route length, and utilization. The findings indicate that HVDC is preferable for regional and medium-distance electricity trade, whereas hydrogen becomes more strategically attractive at intercontinental distances and where storage, transport flexibility, or non-electric end uses are required.