Impacts of climate change on the distribution of waterbird ecological corridors in Northeast China and implications for the Post-2020 global biodiversity framework

Global warming has substantially altered the distribution of waterbird ecological corridors. However, the mechanisms driving these changes remain poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, we developed a coupled climate–habitat–ecological corridor analytical framework integrating the least-cost path model, circuit theory, the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model, and the eXtreme Gradient Boosting–SHapley Additive exPlanations interpretation approach. Using Northeast China as the study area, the framework was applied to simulate and predict the distribution of least-cost corridors, ecological nodes, and habitat suitability for three waterbird species ( Grus japonensis , Cygnus cygnus , and Mergus squamatus ) during the historical period and three future time periods (the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s). The framework was further used to quantify the relative contributions of environmental drivers to the distribution of waterbird ecological corridors. The results indicate that: (1) under climatic filtering, non-narrow-range species with broader niche breadth generally maintained relatively stable corridor number and length, whereas narrow-range species exhibited greater temporal variability in corridor patterns, particularly in habitat area and corridor number density; and (2) at the regional scale, climatic factors are strongly associated with the distribution of waterbird ecological corridors, likely through their effects on physiological suitability and resource availability. Elevation and local habitat attributes provide additional environmental constraints that drive these climate–corridor associations. By examining the associations among climate, elevation, habitat, and ecological corridor distribution within a coupled-system framework, this study highlights the urgent need to integrate climatic considerations into corridor conservation planning in support of the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework.