Spatiotemporal variations and influencing factors of highly pathogenic avian influenza risk in the Pan-Tibetan Plateau region

Background Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a major infectious disease threatening the poultry industry and public health severely. The spatiotemporal patterns and driving forces, however, remain elusive in the Tibetan Plateau and its vicinity, an ecologically critical corridor for migratory birds. This study aims to identify the factors driving these variations and to assess the HPAI risk in wild birds and domestic poultry across this region. Methods Based on HPAI records from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and the Official Veterinary Bulletin and 34 potential drivers in the Pan-Tibetan Plateau (PTP), comprising Xizang Autonomous Region (XZ), Qinghai Province (QH), Gansu Province (GS), Sichuan Province (SC), Yunnan Province (YN) and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XJ), this study utilized the MaxEnt models to simulate spatial patterns of HPAI risk of wild birds, domestic poultry, and the integration of both, and identify key risk factors. Results Performances of models for wild birds and domestic poultry models were robust (both Test AUC values > 0.9). Although the mixed model performed acceptably overall, it significantly underestimated the infection risk in wild birds. High-risk areas of wild birds HPAI were concentrated in XZ, QH, GS and XJ (> 93%), showing a close relationship with natural factors like slope and distance to water sources. Conversely, those for domestic poultry were mainly distributed in YN, SC, GS (about 70%) and the peripheries of provincial capitals, dominated by socioeconomic variables such as gross domestic product and road networks. Moreover, overlapping HPAI risk areas were found in GS, XJ, XZ, and QH, which may be associated with increasing poultry production and fragmented wetland landscape. Additionally, it’s recommended that HPAI risk modeling be stratified by host types, particularly in areas with sparse surveillance data. Conclusions HPAI risks in wild birds and domestic poultry are dominated by natural factors and socioeconomic conditions respectively, and overlapping high-risk areas require focused attention. This study contributes to the understanding of HPAI transmission mechanisms in different hosts, providing a scientific basis for differentiated surveillance in the PTP.