The Increasing Taiwan Risk for the United States: A Military-Strategic Bidimensional Assessment

The accelerating militarization of the Taiwan issue, embedded in US efforts to counterbalance China, has become a volatile flashpoint. This article develops a dual-dimensional analytical framework integrating military balance and strategic calculus to assess the risks in US–Taiwan policy. At the military level, although the United States retains superiority, China has ascended as a competitive powerhouse and eroded the asymmetry with the United States thereby substantially raising the prospective costs of US military intervention. At the strategic level, Beijing’s stronger strategic determination, advantageous strategic geography, more concentrated resource allocation, along with the ever-present risk of nuclear escalation, are rendering America’s manipulation of the ‘Taiwan Card’ riskier. As these dynamics converge, Taiwan is increasingly shifting from a strategic asset toward a growing liability for the United States.