The Kosovo analogy in Putin’s foreign policy discourse

Historical analogies can inform policy debate and justify action, but public references alone cannot establish learning. This article examines how Vladimir Putin invoked Kosovo in official discourse between 2000 and 2023. A longitudinal qualitative analysis of 24 executive records distinguishes the analogy’s source referent, target, public timing and argumentative function. The records show overlapping uses. Hereby, there are diagnosis of an unequal security order, warnings about future recognition and justification of actions in Georgia and Ukraine. Prospective comparisons appear by December 2004 while retrospective justification is explicit in August 2008. Later invocations selectively connect NATO’s intervention, Kosovo’s independence and the International Court of Justice’s opinion to different Russian claims. This study delineates how an analogy can transition from serving as a warning to a justification, all while the creator refrains from supporting a consistent secessionist doctrine. Status and identity scholarship helps interpret the accompanying claims to equality and agency.