Disasters and interstate conflict: Greek–Turkish relations after the 2023 earthquakes

How do disasters affect interstate conflict? Existing perspectives on this question propose conflict-reducing or conflict-inducing effects, attribute these effects to different theoretical mechanisms and implicitly study either short- or medium- to long-term post-disaster periods. We focus on the Greek-Turkish rivalry dyad, and the 2023 Kahramanmaraş earthquakes, to collect, develop observable implications for and test these competing perspectives. Using an interrupted time series design, we analyse fine-grained monthly data on bilateral political tensions spanning the period 2009–2025. Our findings show a dramatic drop in tensions – reaching a 15-year low – immediately following the earthquakes. While this effect proved temporary, as tensions have increased since, they remain well below pre-disaster levels almost 3 years after the earthquakes struck. Probing the mechanisms behind this reduction in conflict, we document evidence that is more consistent with optimistic accounts of solidarity-based rapprochement than alternative explanations, such as strategic avoidance of diversionary conflict, resource constraints or regularised disaster cooperation. These results provide new insights into the relationship between disasters and interstate conflict, offering a cautiously optimistic addition to research on disaster diplomacy and crisis-induced cooperation in international relations.