Economic growth and CO₂ emissions in the EU’s primary maritime sector: Evidence of decoupling?

This study examines the relationship between economic growth, measured through gross value added (GVA), and CO₂ emissions in the European Union’s marine primary sector (fisheries and aquaculture) over the period 2008–2024. Using the Tapio elasticity framework and a multi-level clustering approach, we assess the extent and nature of decoupling across EU member states and institutional contexts. Results show that EU member states exhibit both relative and absolute decoupling patterns, with six countries achieving absolute decoupling between economic production and CO₂ emissions. Median CO₂ intensity per unit of GVA declined by approximately 41% across the EU, indicating important improvements in carbon efficiency within the sector. In some cases, fisheries demonstrate simultaneous economic growth and emission reductions over the period 2008–2023, suggesting the emergence of localized low-carbon transition pathways. However, the dominant pattern remains recession-driven decoupling, where emission reductions are primarily associated with declining or stagnant economic activity rather than structural decarbonization. This suggests that many emission reductions are linked to economic contraction, rising fuel costs, and reduced fishing activity, rather than long-term systemic transformation. Strong decoupling is geographically concentrated, with the Northeast Atlantic emerging as the only basin showing consistent structural improvements. In contrast, aquaculture-dominated countries exhibit weaker decoupling performance, with only one country showing sustained convergence toward low-carbon trajectories. These regional differences highlight the role of institutional capacity, fleet structure, and governance frameworks in shaping decarbonization outcomes across marine systems. The frequent divergence between modal and average decoupling states reveals high structural instability and sensitivity to economic and energy shocks. This volatility indicates that current low-carbon trajectories remain fragile and insufficiently embedded within the sector. Overall, the findings demonstrate that efficiency gains alone are insufficient to achieve climate neutrality. Achieving sustained emission reductions will require deeper structural transformations, including fleet-specific decarbonization strategies, energy transition, stronger climate-oriented governance, and integrated policies that support both environmental sustainability and socio-economic resilience in coastal communities.