Forecasting the Feasibility of a Sales Budget Expansion Target in Shipping Logistics: Evidence from PT XYZ

Annual sales budgets in shipping logistics are often set by managerial ambition rather than evidence. This study tests whether a 100% incremental sales target is quantitatively feasible, using 36 months of revenue and operational data (June 2023 to May 2026) from PT XYZ, an Indonesian freight forwarding provider. Ten forecasting models in three groups (baseline, statistical and decomposition-based, including Prophet-type and empirical wavelet transform hybrids) were compared on a 12-month hold-out year. The chosen model was re-evaluated to predict revenue for FY2027, and a bootstrap simulation was used to determine the likelihood of achieving the USD 21.99 million target. The simple model performed best, with a MAPE of 9.62%, and none of the decomposition models surpassed the basic benchmarks. It was found that the length of the forecasting period had a greater impact on accuracy than the complexity of the model. The forecast for FY2027 revenue is USD 12.57 million, which is an increase of 14.3%, but this only meets 57% of the target. None of 30,000 simulated outcomes reached the target, which would require operational volumes to grow by 100% to 184%, against a record of 82.7%. An evidence-based committed budget of USD 12.74 million and a stretch budget of USD 13.10 million are proposed. The study links forecasting research with budget target-setting theory by measuring target difficulty before the budget year and offers a transparent procedure that firms with short data histories can replicate.