Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Illegal Bushmeat Hunting in the Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem: Insights from Patrol-Detected Wire Snaring and Wildlife Mortality

Illegal bushmeat hunting using wire snares remains a major threat to wildlife in African protected ecosystems, yet its spatial and temporal patterns are often difficult to assess because available information is derived from non-random law-enforcement patrols. This study examined patrol-recorded wire snare removals and snare-related wildlife mortality in the Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem from 2018 to 2024. We quantified annual and monthly variation in recorded snares and mortality, modelled annual relative snare occurrence suitability, mapped relative species-specific snare-related mortality suitability for the eight most frequently recorded species, and assessed associated environmental and anthropogenic variables. Kruskal–Wallis tests, Dunn’s post hoc comparisons and Spearman’s rank correlations were used to evaluate temporal variation. Presence-only records were modelled using Maximum Entropy, with continuous predictions retained as relative suitability values from 0 to 1. After data filtering, 87,027 patrol-detected and removed wire snares and 1967 confirmed snare-related wildlife mortalities involving 13 species were retained. Recorded snare removals varied significantly among years and months, with the highest annual total in 2022 and a pronounced monthly peak in August. No monotonic temporal trend was detected in annual snare removals and recorded snare-related wildlife mortality over the seven-year study period. Wildlife mortality also varied significantly among years, months and species, with the highest monthly levels occurring in August and September. Wildebeest accounted for the greatest recorded mortality. Annual MaxEnt models identified recurring areas of relatively high fitted suitability for patrol-detected snare occurrence, particularly in northern and western Serengeti National Park, Grumeti and Ikorongo Game Reserves, the Makundusi grazing lands and Ikona Wildlife Management Area. Species-specific models showed spatial variation in recorded snare-related mortality suitability, while elevation, long-term mean annual precipitation and distance to buildings were among the predictors associated with the fitted patterns. Because standardized information on patrol effort, spatial coverage, and detection was unavailable, these predictions should be interpreted as exploratory patterns of patrol-recorded detections rather than unbiased estimates of the underlying distribution or intensity of illegal hunting. The identified areas and periods may therefore inform field verification and adaptive patrol planning, but should not be used alone to infer snaring intensity or determine patrol allocation.