Why mothers exit: childcare disruptions and the household division of labor

Using COVID-19 school and childcare closures as exogenous shocks to childcare supply, we ask why mothers rather than fathers exit the labor force when childcare disappears. Individual-level panel data from the Basic Monthly CPS (January 2020–May 2022) matched to SafeGraph closure data show that maternal labor force participation falls disproportionately, and that intrahousehold bargaining contributes to this penalty.