When innovation meets crisis: do CEO traits and gender shape market performance?

This study examines whether CEO managerial orientations and gender condition the association between firms’ sensitivity to innovation-related information and stock excess returns under heightened uncertainty. Drawing on upper echelons theory and dynamic managerial capabilities, it distinguishes market-based innovation sensitivity from observable managerial orientations and demographic characteristics. A firm-level Innovation Spillover (IS) measure is constructed using a GARCH framework, while Opportunity Orientation (OPP), Risk Orientation (RISK), and Adaptability/Reconfiguration (ADAPT) are measured through theory-grounded textual analysis. Using data from 30 U.S.-listed firms during 2019–2022, pooled panel models assess whether the association between lagged IS and daily stock excess returns varies with CEO characteristics between the 2019 benchmark and the 2020–2022 COVID-era period. Neither OPP nor RISK exhibits statistically significant crisis-contingent moderation. ADAPT exhibits negative moderation in 2019 that is attenuated during 2020–2022; however, this change is only marginally significant, and the joint test of crisis-related moderation across all three orientations is insignificant. The analysis provides no statistically significant evidence of gender differences in the IS–return relationship in either period or of changes in those differences. These findings offer qualified, orientation-specific evidence of executive heterogeneity in short-horizon market responses. They suggest that managerial orientations warrant consideration alongside demographic characteristics, while limiting broader claims about managerial capabilities or long-run innovation performance.