Carbon emission structure and upstream pathways of EU27 agriculture: Evidence from EXIOBASE3

Aggregating agriculture into broad sectors can conceal opposing production- and consumption-based emission balances. Using 17 EXIOBASE agricultural activities, including 15 with non-zero emissions, we combine environmentally extended multiregional input-output accounting and structural path analysis (SPA) for EU27 agriculture. Production-based accounting (PBA) covers direct emissions from gross output, whereas agricultural consumption-based accounting (CBA) traces primary final-product footprints; NET = CBA − PBA therefore reflects a structural producer-versus-final-product allocation gap. We analyse 2014–2020 as the primary window and retain 2021–2022 as a secondary extension. Both one-sector and Crop/Livestock classifications show uniformly production-skewed balances. Activity-level resolution instead reveals positive NET averaging 18.1 Mt CO₂-eq annually, equivalent to 9.7% of agricultural CBA, which disappears under both coarser classifications in every primary-window year. Consumption-skewed crop activities accounted for a mean 62.4% of Crop CBA despite the aggregate remaining production-skewed. First-tier upstream emissions were predominantly intra-EU. Production layers PL0–PL3 captured 95.0% of agricultural CBA, with PL1 the largest indirect layer. Comparison with the official agricultural inventory supports PBA plausibility under an aligned CH₄–N₂O boundary but does not validate consumption-based results. Reporting agricultural activities separately reveals opposing NET balances concealed by aggregation; geographical decomposition and SPA show their distribution and associated upstream emission sources.