Testing protection motivation theory in climate–hunger nexus: food insecurity, climate perceptions, and environmental policy support in Ghana with urban–rural inequalities

This study examines the climate–hunger nexus by evaluating how climate change perceptions influence environmental policy support through food insecurity, accounting for urban–rural and income inequalities in Ghana. The paper advances Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) by integrating material hardship, framing food insecurity as a key mediator between cognitive threat appraisal and public policy support. Utilizing nationally representative data from the Afrobarometer Round 10 (2024) survey with a sample size of 2 , 400 adult respondents, the analytical framework employs Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) with bootstrapped mediation, multi-group analysis, and interaction structural models. The results indicate that climate threat perceptions positively impact food insecurity, which in turn significantly increases support for environmental policies. Food insecurity mediates the relationship between climate perceptions and policy support. Multi-group and interaction analyses further reveal that this indirect pathway is significantly stronger among rural ( β = 0.17 , p < 0.001 ) and low-income ( β = 0.19 , p < 0.001 ) households. In conclusion, cognitive recognition of climate risk translates into policy support primarily when mediated by real material vulnerability. Consequently, climate risk communication and adaptation policies must explicitly integrate household food security mechanisms, targeting rural and low-income communities with climate-smart agricultural support and social protection to enhance national adaptive capacity.