The Unpopular Populist: Prabowo’s Unconsolidated Authoritarianism

Over the past decade, Indonesia’s political trajectory has mirrored the global trend of democratic breakdown. When Prabowo Subianto, a populist candidate, won the presidency in 2024, concerns arose that he would deepen this ongoing autocratisation. Political developments in 2026 reveal that he has done so, pushing Indonesia further into competitive authoritarianism. However, and more unexpectedly, his own hold on power remains unconsolidated. This article argues that autocratisation is deepening under Prabowo through three mechanisms: personalisation, recentralisation and remilitarisation. These same mechanisms have also become the source of his vulnerability. Two years in, Prabowo’s approval and electability ratings have fallen sharply as a result of the repressive misgovernance his policies have produced, and his incomplete power consolidation has left space for civil society resistance and elite recalcitrance, including from within his inner circle. Whatever becomes of Prabowo, the further weakening of institutions and the military’s deeper entrenchment are likely to have lasting effects.