Data-driven well-resolved aggregate-capacity screening for brackish-blending management in Kuwait under pumping and total-dissolved-solids constraints

Brackish groundwater is a strategic supply buffer for arid states reliant on energy-intensive seawater desalination, yet the operational condition of legacy well fields and the distribution-side limits on dispatchable volume remain understudied. Both are addressed here for Kuwait, where desalination supplies ∼ 92% of municipal water. A ministry-level record of 393 wells across five production fields was assembled, and a well-resolved screening linear program was formulated to maximize brackish blending subject to the 1,000-ppm upper total-dissolved-solids (TDS) limit of the applicable Gulf drinking-water standard and an aggregate pumping bound. The model resolves individual wells but represents the distribution side as a single aggregate capacity scalar; it is a screening model, not a hydraulic network model, and its optimum is an upper bound on what a station-resolved network could deliver. Current operations support 62.24MIGD of blending; all rehabilitation scenarios saturate the pumping bound at 90.70MIGD, a 1.46 × (45.7%) uplift. The binding constraint is, therefore, distribution-side aggregate capacity, not upstream well availability. This finding is robust: a zone-partitioned re-solve yields 87.8 MIGD–90.70MIGD, and crediting the standby reserve shifts the binding constraint to the TDS limit; well availability never binds. Constraining dispatch to the nine documented pumping stations reduces the realizable volume to 55.08 MIGD (61% of the aggregate optimum) when each field feeds a single station, quantifying the cost of the full-connectivity assumption; the binding constraint stays on the distribution side in every case. A lexicographic formulation returns the same volume at lower delivered TDS, yielding a unique dispatch portfolio. The S0 → S3 transition increases the TDS-feasible substitution ceiling by 45.7% (a theoretical upper bound under cogeneration coupling), supporting SDG 6 targets 6.4 and 6.5. The TDS volumes reported represent TDS-feasible blending maximums for the distribution system and do not independently determine that the blended product will be safe for consumption. This diagnostic (i.e., comparing the rehabilitation well flow rates with the production flow rate of the existing firm distribution system) can also be applied to other arid-state utilities.