Spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of disaster resilience in the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area based on long time-series night-time light data

Assessing regional economic recovery after major earthquakes is critical for disaster risk reduction. This study aims to evaluate the disaster resilience of the Wenchuan earthquake-stricken area and explore its spatially varying influencing factors. Based on night-time light data, we constructed a counterfactual development baseline to quantify four resilience indices: Instantaneous Disturbance (D), Recovery Rate (R), Recovery Time (T), and Cumulative Economic Loss (L). Ordinary Least Squares and Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regression models were applied to analyse the spatial heterogeneity of the relationships between resilience and its influencing factors. The results indicate that the initial post-disaster recovery trajectories in extremely severely affected areas exhibited distinct spatial deviations. The core influencing factors associated with resilience show a phased pattern: environmental and disaster factors are more closely associated with the initial disturbance and short-term recovery (D, R), whereas socioeconomic factors show stronger associations with the medium- and long-term recovery and cumulative losses (T, L). The relationships between these factors and resilience vary spatially. In conclusion, regional disaster resilience and its associated influencing factors exhibit spatial heterogeneity. Enhancing long-term economic resilience requires differentiated, localised recovery strategies tailored to specific geographical and socioeconomic conditions rather than uniform reconstruction approaches.