Climate–irrigation Interactions and Hydrogeochemical Controls on Groundwater Salinization in the Kura–aras Lowland

Groundwater salinization in the Kura–Aras Lowland of Azerbaijan cannot be understood through a single climatic or irrigation variable because alluvial sediment properties, inherited salt inventories, shallow aquifer gradients, managed recharge, and drainage operate across contrasting spatial and temporal scales. This review develops a process-oriented framework for distinguishing changes in groundwater mineralization from related but different expressions of soil salinity and vegetation stress. Peer-reviewed regional investigations of the Shirvan Plain, long-term groundwater regimes, remote-sensing indicators, and combined climate–water-management effects are examined alongside broader evidence on irrigation–hydrology interactions. Particular attention is given to competing mechanisms involving evaporative concentration, mobilization of sedimentary salts, water–rock reactions, changing irrigation-water quality, and altered groundwater residence times. Rather than presenting new field data or unsupported numerical forecasts, the paper identifies observable signatures that could discriminate these mechanisms in future monitoring. Two qualitative matrices describe hydrogeochemical tests and cross-scale management priorities. The analysis argues that credible attribution requires paired observations of groundwater level and ion composition, screened aquifer interval, soil condition, drainage pathways, and irrigation operations. Adaptive reclamation planning should evaluate both benefits within cultivated fields and transfers of dissolved salts to downstream waters. The proposed framework supports more transparent interpretation of heterogeneous evidence and more defensible choices about monitoring and climate-resilient groundwater management.