Using extension experts to predict future landholder adoption of grazing management practices in the Great Barrier Reef catchments

Policymakers often need generalized but insightful predictions about adoption changes that cohorts of farmers may make in the future. However, this information is rarely available from the detailed literature on the drivers and barriers of adoption at the enterprise level. In this study, we report the application of a systematic analysis of knowledge from extension experts to generate higher level estimates of future changes and demonstrate it in the context of grazing management changes to improve water quality entering the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia. This empirical study applies a structured elicitation technique using the ‘Investigate’, ‘Discuss’, ‘Estimate’, and ‘Aggregate’ (IDEA) protocol to elicit knowledge from 24 experts regarding the future adoption potential of three pollutant-reducing grazing practices. The study estimates current and future levels of adoption and disadoption under existing policy settings and evaluates the net adoption, including degree of uncertainty and convergence in expert estimates. The results indicate that net adoption of these grazing practices is expected to increase over the next 10 years; however, experts expressed substantial uncertainty in their estimates. These findings provide valuable insights for policymakers seeking to accelerate the uptake of sustainable grazing practices in order to improve the water quality of the GBR.