Comparative predictive roles of mathematical self-efficacy and learning motivation on students’ critical thinking skills: Evidence from structural equation modeling

Background: Critical thinking is a key competency in mathematics education that enables students to analyze information, justify reasoning, and solve problems effectively. Although learning motivation and mathematical self-efficacy are widely recognized as important affective factors, their comparative contributions to students’ critical thinking remain unclear. Aims: This study aimed to compare the predictive roles of learning motivation and mathematical self-efficacy in explaining students’ critical thinking skills in solving Pythagorean theorem problems. Method: A quantitative cross-sectional correlational design was employed involving 34 eighth-grade students selected through simple random sampling. Data were collected using an ARCS-based learning motivation questionnaire, a mathematical self-efficacy questionnaire, and an Ennis-based critical thinking test. Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) and Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) with LISREL 8.80 were used to evaluate the proposed model. Results: The measurement model demonstrated satisfactory validity and reliability (KMO = 0.892; factor loadings ≥ 0.50). The refined structural model achieved acceptable fit (NNFI = 0.97, CFI = 0.98, NFI = 0.96, RFI = 0.94, RMSEA = 0.093). Mathematical self-efficacy positively predicted critical thinking (t = 4.40), whereas learning motivation showed a significant negative association (t = −2.26). Conclusion: Mathematical self-efficacy was a stronger predictor of critical thinking than learning motivation, indicating that students’ confidence in performing mathematical tasks is more closely associated with higher-order reasoning. Given the limited sample size, these findings should be interpreted as preliminary evidence requiring further validation.