Great Expectations? Researchers in Germany are Optimistic about the Potential of Grant Lotteries

In this study I investigate researchers’ expectations towards the potential advantages of grant lotteries in a representative sample of scientists at German universities and higher education institutions provided by the Scientists Survey of the German Centre for Higher Education Research and Science Studies (DZHW). I describe the saliency of the two debates on bias in grant peer review and on grant lotteries, as well as researchers’ levels of experience with grant peer review. I use both descriptive statistics and analytical models to investigate which characteristics shape scientists’ relative grant lottery optimism. I find that experienced and more senior scientists are significantly less optimistic about grant lotteries. Saliency and reviewer workload are positively associated with optimism. I conclude that, even though saliency of the issue remains sparse, researchers are generally optimistic about grant lotteries, yet also aware of some of their potential disadvantages.