Too hot, too wet, too dry? Global building stocks under extreme climate change

Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, creating growing pressures on the built environment. However, the quantity, composition and spatial distribution of building materials exposed to future climate hazards remain undetermined at the global scale. This study integrates global building stock estimates with projected climate hazards to quantify material exposure to extreme heat, fluvial flooding and drought under the SSP5-8.5 scenario for 2090-2100. Spatial analysis identifies regions exposed to individual and multiple hazards, alongside the quantities and composition of potentially affected materials. The results demonstrate substantial geographical heterogeneity, with prominent multi-hazard exposure across South, East and Southeast Asia, Australia, South America and the United States. Concrete (71.27Gt exposed to extreme heat, 43.45Gt - to drought and 26.76Gt to fluvial flooding) and brick (30.60Gt exposed to extreme heat, 23.71Gt - to drought and 13.75Gt - to fluvial floodings) dominate the exposed material stocks, reflecting their prevalence in the global built environment. By linking climate projections with building stocks, this study extends global climate exposure assessments to the material dimension of the built environment. The findings provide a foundation for targeted adaptation planning and future assessments of potential material recovery opportunities.