Formulating resilience strategies for regional tourism in Ukraine under conditions of uncertainty

The study provides a theoretical, methodological, and practical framework for developing resilience strategies for regional tourism systems in Ukraine amid extreme socioeconomic uncertainty and ongoing military conflict. It establishes that the conventional paradigm of sustainable tourism is insufficient to address catastrophic exogenous shocks and requires augmentation by regional economic resilience theory that views destinations as complex adaptive systems. The study decomposes destructive factors affecting the tourism sector across security, socio-demographic, financial-economic, and digital-infrastructural dimensions. A critical element of the research is identifying spatial asymmetry in the adaptive capacity of Ukrainian regions, which justifies a differentiated strategic management matrix that establishes development vectors for secure regional ‘rear hubs’ and regenerative measures for frontline or de-occupied areas. To formalize destination evaluation, we develop a novel mathematical approach to quantify the Integral Index of Economic Resilience of the Regional Tourism System (IER_rts). This composite index incorporates four critical sub-indices: resistance, adaptability, market diversification, and institutional governance, calculated using normalized primary economic indicators such as tax revenues, employment preservation, capital investments, and the Herfindahl-Hirschman index. The paper also introduces a multi-stage roadmap comprising phases of reactive adaptation, systemic post-crisis reconstruction based on the ‘Build Back Better’ principle, and proactive long-term transformation. The paper outlines product diversification through niche segments, including medical rehabilitation services, commemorative military tourism, and agritourism clusters. The institutional mechanism relies on shifting to horizontal, network-based Destination Management Organizations (DMOs) integrated with cloud platforms. The resulting empirical evaluation allows regulatory bodies to optimize state financial instruments and international grants to enhance regional competitiveness and economic security.