Linking blue finance with ecological condition and coastal tourism under marine warming in Indonesia

Blue finance aims to sustain coastal ecosystems and tourism, but evaluating its benefits requires compatible financial and environmental records. We examine Indonesian evidence for 2015–2025 using financial reconciliation, ecological comparisons, revenue accounting and retrospective tourism prediction. Six conservation grant packages report cumulative expenditure of 41.10 billion Indonesian rupiah through 2022. Restoration-specific costs and intervention boundaries remain unresolved. At SD Point, raw hard-coral cover is 21.12 percentage points higher at the restoration locality than at the rubble locality, without independent site replication or a verified funding link. Gili Matra person-ticket receipts increased by 66.04% between 2023 and 2024, but tariff and collection changes prevent interpreting this as visitor growth. A completion-report economic model estimates positive returns across twelve protected areas using assumed counterfactual benefits; these differ from measured project effects. Across 24 evaluation months, a seasonal Bali visitor baseline outperforms ridge prediction with or without regional thermal indicators. The evidence supports expenditure accounting, ecological contrasts and revenue trends, while additional ecological benefits, net tourism income and ecological mediation remain unidentified.